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CP 1 Livestock systems under business-as-usual scenarios: GHG emissions and climate change impacts.
Leader: Peter Kuikman (Wageningen UR)

Background and Aims

CP1 establishes the framework of the project by simulating business-as-usual trends in livestock systems for a range of climatic and of socio-economic storylines derived from the new IPCC AR5 stabilization baseline and atmospheric CO2 stabilisation scenarios. GHG emissions and sector and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change will be assessed assuming that no specific mitigation and adaptation measures are taken by actors in the livestock sector. The time horizon studied in this component is 2010-2050 for socio-economic storylines. However, projections from biophysical models of feed crops, pastures and animal productivity will be extended to 2100.

The component is composed of 4 interlinked Workpackages (WP)
To find out more- click on the WP box below

Component 1 will

  • Predict developments in population increase, food and diet requirements and preferences and their implications for livestock product demand and for land use in the future
  • Provide detailed storylines for livestock production showing the dominant livestock production systems in the future (2010 – 2050) under baseline and under a range of stabilization scenarios if no specific actions (mitigation or adaptation) are taken in the livestock sector
  • Reduce uncertainties in estimates of
    • soil C sequestration, of CH4 emissions at grazing in Africa and Latin America and of CH4 and N2O emissions from farm effluents, especially from monogastric systems and of application of N2O from urine and manure from grazing animals
    • impacts of increased climatic variability and extreme events in interaction with elevated atmospheric CO2 and in the potential impacts on livestock productivity of increased spread of animal diseases
  • Provide refined estimates of current (baseline) and future (storylines and climatic scenarios) sources and sinks of CH4, N2O and CO2 (including C sequestration and land use change) from each livestock system in each project region and including (or not) pre-chain emissions
  • Simulate climate change impacts on feed crop, pasture and livestock productivity and health, taking into account the role of climate variability and extremes and qualitatively assessing potential impacts of animal diseases on livestock productivity
  • Assess vulnerability in terms of probability of a given percentage reduction in productivity and conversely of a given percentage increase in net GHG emissions

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